Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Ticker: ACHR
Current Price: ~$10.28 (as of June 16, 2025) (barrons.com)
Market Cap: ~$5.48 billion
Industry: eVTOL / Urban Air Mobility
Investment Thesis
Archer Aviation produces electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft—Midnight and others—targeted at transforming urban air mobility. With significant momentum underpinned by aircraft deals, FAA certification progress, and high-profile customer partnerships, Archer has the potential to be a key player in a multi-billion-dollar UAM market. Its recent rally reflects renewed investor confidence, and its public listing offers exposure to next-gen aerospace infrastructure in a liquid format.
Business Model & Monetization
Revenue comprises aircraft sales, R&D contracts (often defense-related), and urban air mobility service agreements.
Partnerships include Uber Elevate, Airbus, and UAE launch partners (seekingalpha.com, finviz.com).
Targeting initial revenue in 2026–2027 upon Midnight production and certification, with future service expansion thereafter.
Market Opportunity
UAM market is projected to exceed $1 trillion over the next two decades.
eVTOL adoption hinges on certification, fleet deployment, and regulatory acceptance.
Archer appears to be progressing ahead of many peers in FAA path-forward and supply-chain build-out.
Valuation Framework & Forward PEG Proxy
Metric
Estimate / Calculation
Shares Outstanding: ~549 million
Projected Early Revenue: ~$200 million (2026–2027 EOY)
EV: ~$4.51 billion
EV/Revenue (proxy): ~22.6×
Revenue CAGR (2023–2027): ~100%+
EV/Growth PEG Proxy: 22.6 ÷ 100 = 0.226
*Estimate based on first-year aircraft deliveries and early service revenue. Assumes 10–20 aircraft at ~$10M each, plus support/logistics income.
A revenue-growth-weighted proxy PEG of ~0.2 suggests the valuation could be supported if delivery ramps and certification targets are met.
Competitive Advantage
- First-mover within the FAA eVTOL certification path (Midnight aircraft)
- Strong partnerships and customer pre-orders (e.g., Uber, UAE)
- Vertical integration of technology, manufacturing, and service offering
- Advantageous timing: UAM momentum is increasing amidst regulatory tailwinds
Financial Overview
- Pre-revenue from aircraft, though bolstered by R&D contract bookings
- Cash runway extended by January 2025 $850 million capital raise (digital.fidelity.com, next.benzinga.com)
- Debt is negligible; substantial cash vault supports certification and product scaling
Short Interest & Float Dynamics
- Public Float: ~417.4 million shares (marketbeat.com)
- Short Interest: ~63.44 million shares (~14.3% of float) (fintel.io)
- Short Ratio: ~1.17–1.73 days to cover (fintel.io)
Implication: Elevated short interest means ACHR could experience volatility on regulatory or delivery news.
Analyst Coverage & Sentiment
- Analyst Ratings: 7 Buy, 1 Hold (Moderate Buy consensus) (marketbeat.com)
- Average 12‑Month Price Target: ~$13.13 (range $9–$18) (marketbeat.com)
- Barron’s Consensus (9 analysts): ~$12.33 (barrons.com)
Analyst projections show a potential range of outcomes, including positive growth scenarios.
Risks & Mitigants
| Risk | Mitigant |
|---|---|
| Regulation & certification delays | Midnight design already submitted under FAA path |
| Funding consumption pre-delivery | Large recent capital injection extends financial runway |
| Execution risk & supply chain complexity | Multiple partnerships and supplier frameworks |
| Market sentiment volatility | High short interest creates backdrop for sharp corrections or rallies |
Conclusion
Archer Aviation is considered by some as a strong candidate to pioneer urban air mobility. With significant FAA momentum, strong partnerships, and a large cash balance, the company’s ~$10 EV/revenue multiple may appear elevated and would require continued progress to be supported. The forward EV/Growth PEG proxy of ~0.23 indicates potential alignment with substantial early-stage revenue expectations.
As a venture-like yet publicly traded aerospace infrastructure company, Archer may appeal to investors exploring high-risk, high-innovation themes. The stock offers potential upside if key milestones are met, but is equally exposed to execution and regulatory timing risk.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor. All opinions are the author’s own. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
