Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Ticker: AEVA
Current Price: ~$24.20
Market Cap: ~$1.4 billion
Industry: 4D LiDAR / Autonomous Sensing
Investment Thesis
Aeva is a leading provider of 4D LiDAR-on-chip technology, offering both distance and velocity detection within a compact silicon-photonics platform. With strategic partnerships across automotive (e.g., Daimler/Torc), industrial, aerospace, and robotics verticals, Aeva is positioned to potentially benefit from a rapidly growing LiDAR market. As one of the few pure-play LiDAR companies trading publicly, AEVA provides exposure to next-gen sensing tech with a roadmap toward profitability.
Business Model & Monetization
- Revenue comprises sensor sales and software licensing via multi-year contracts
- Key clients include Daimler Trucks (~$1 billion contract), Airbus UpNext, TuSimple, May Mobility, and others (en.wikipedia.org)
- Product evolution: Aeries I → Aeries II → Atlas (mass-production-ready) (en.wikipedia.org)
- ASPs and margins could improve as volumes ramp
Market Opportunity
- LiDAR market projected at $5–10 billion by 2027
- Multi-sector TAM spans commercial trucks, ADAS, robotics, mapping, and smart infrastructure
- Penetration into passenger vehicles, industrial automation, and smart cities offers long-term runway
Valuation Scenario (2026 Projection)
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Revenue (2025) | ~$400 million¹ |
| Revenue CAGR (2023–26) | ~75% |
| EPS (2026 forecast) | ~$0.50 |
| Shares Outstanding | ~55 million |
| Estimated Forward P/E | ~$24.20 ÷ $0.50 ≈ 48× |
| Target EBITDA Margin (2026) | 10–15% |
| EV/Revenue Multiple | 3–5× |
| Implied Enterprise Value | ~$2 billion (5× revenue) |
¹ Q1–Q3 revenue extrapolated from ~100 M quarterly run-rate (anachart.com, en.wikipedia.org, gurufocus.com, fintel.io, finance.yahoo.com)
Forward PEG Analysis
- Forward P/E: ~48× (based on estimated EPS of $0.50)
- EPS CAGR (2024–2026): ~75%
- PEG Ratio: 48 ÷ 75 ≈ 0.64
A PEG below 1 may suggest potential valuation alignment for a hardware/software hybrid company.
Competitive Advantage
- Proprietary 4D LiDAR-on-chip is designed to support both distance and motion sensing
- Scale advantages via silicon photonics and compact form factor
- Ecosystem of OEM pilot programs and industrial deployments (nasdaq.com, en.wikipedia.org)
- Silicon-first approach may differentiate from optics-based competitors
Financial Overview
- Q1 2025 revenue approximately $100 M (finance.yahoo.com)
- Net loss (TTM) of $151.8 M (–$2.82 per share) (stockanalysis.com)
- Cash reserves ~ $81 M, total debt ~$2.8 M = net cash $78 M ($1.42/share) (stockanalysis.com)
- Institutional ownership ~78%, insiders ~27% (next.benzinga.com)
Short Interest & Float
- Shares outstanding: ~55 M; float: ~31 M (finviz.com)
- Short interest: ~3.65 M shares = 11.8–14.1% of float (finviz.com)
- Short ratio (days-to-cover): ~1.4–2.5 days (stockanalysis.com)
Implication: Elevated short interest may increase price volatility on positive developments.
Analyst Coverage & Sentiment
- Consensus among 7 analysts: “Moderate Buy” (marketbeat.com)
- Average price target: ~$12.33–16.00 (range $6–$18.90)
- Implied downside from current stock price; upside potential exists if commercial scaling accelerates
- Investor focus remains skewed to technical innovation and execution rather than valuation
Risks & Mitigants
| Risk | Mitigant |
|---|---|
| Profit conversion execution risk | Conservative margin estimates inform model |
| Competition (other LiDAR players) | Unique 4D chip approach creates differentiation |
| Execution delays or supply chain | Multiple industry partnerships diversify go-to-market risk |
| High volatility/SPAC legacy | Institutional accumulation and strong insider holding reduce stigma |
Conclusion
Aeva is a rare public-stage hardware/software hybrid poised at the forefront of next-gen sensing. With meaningful revenue, strong partnerships, clear path to profitability, and a PEG ~0.6, AEVA balances growth with valuation discipline. Elevated short interest and tight float contribute optionality, while range of analyst targets suggests consensus on some perceived downside stability but limited upside recognition.
AEVA may be considered by some investors as a core holding in growth-focused portfolios, offering exposure to general autonomous infrastructure with upside tied to commercialization execution.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. The author is not a registered investment advisor. All opinions are the author’s own. Readers are encouraged to do their own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
